Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

In search of truth, the mysterious, and bizarre. Gary rules here.
Forum rules
Civil discussion appreciated. No Spam...
User avatar
Renee
Elite Member
Elite Member
Posts: 5076
Joined: May 7th, 2013, 10:05 am

Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 150638Unread post Renee »

Blue Frost wrote: As large as their country is, and having many different regions they have resources, and could have more if they managed right.
They can build a world record dam they should be able to plant a world record forest, and have good farms.
Your not growing anything when the air is fucking brown. :laugh:


“A man’s rights rest in three boxes. The ballot-box, the jury-box, and the cartridge-box.”....Frederick Douglas
User avatar
Blue Frost
SUPER VIP
SUPER VIP
Posts: 92978
Joined: May 14th, 2012, 1:01 am
Location: Yodenheim

Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 150652Unread post Blue Frost »

Maybe so, but they can clean that up. They can also move farms away from the cities.
There was an Egyptian pharaoh who turned the dessert green, and tamed the Nile for a time so today they can do more.
Man as a whole should be doing better.
Of course I talk to myself. Sometimes I need expert advise, and a good conversation.
User avatar
Gary Oak
VIP Member
VIP Member
Posts: 7581
Joined: June 25th, 2012, 5:32 pm

Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 157547Unread post Gary Oak »

Is This the End of China’s Second Housing Bubble?

Central planners got the economy going again last year by stimulating the housing market, but it looks like the good times are over

When the economy started to cool in the beginning of 2016, China opened up the debt spigots again to stimulate the economy. After the failed initiative with the stock market in 2015, Chinese central planners chose residential real estate again.

And it worked. As mortgages made up 40.5 percent of new bank loans in 2016, house prices were rising at more than 10 percent year over year for most of 2016 and the beginning of 2017. Overall, they got so expensive that the average Chinese would have had to spend more than 160 times his annual income to purchase an average housing unit at the end of 2016.

Because housing uses a lot of human resources and raw material inputs, the economy also stabilized and has been doing rather well in 2017, according to both the official numbers and unofficial reports from organizations like the China Beige Book (CBB), which collects independent, on-the-ground data about the Chinese economy.

“China Beige Book’s new Q2 results show an economy that improved again, compared to both last quarter and a year ago, with retail and services each bouncing back from underwhelming Q1 performances,” states the most recent CBB report.

However, because Beijing’s central planners must walk a tightrope between stimulating the economy and exacerbating a financial bubble, they tightened housing regulations as well as lending in the beginning of 2017.

Has the Bubble Burst?

Research by TS Lombard now suggests the housing bubble may have burst for the second time after 2014.

“We expect the latest round of policy tightening in the property sector to drive down housing sales significantly over the next six months,” states the research firm, in its latest “China Watch” report.

One of the major reasons for the concern is increased regulation. Out of the 55 cities measured in the national property price index, 25 have increased regulation on housing purchases.

In Beijing, for example, some owners of residential real estate can no longer sell their apartments to private buyers—instead, they have to sell to businesses, because their apartment has been marked for business use by the authorities.

Other measures include higher down payments, price controls, and increasing the time until the unit can be sold again.

“First- and second-tier cities have enacted such draconian measures that it is nigh impossible to buy or sell a property,” states the report.

Credit Tightening

Although the central bank left its benchmark mortgage lending rate unchanged at 4.9 percent, banks have increased the rates they charge on mortgages to as high as 6 percent and, in some cases, have stopped giving out mortgages altogether because they have used up their quotas set by regulators.

The People’s Bank of China wants to lower the share of mortgage lending to 30 percent of new loans, which should influence new demand for housing.

“Unlike 10 years ago, when most Chinese households made a 50 to 70 percent down payment to buy a new apartment, more than 80 percent of borrowers in the past two years have put down 30 percent or less. With reduced mortgage funding availability, we believe it is unlikely that households will be able to finance their purchase through savings,” states the TS Lombard report.

So far, the slowdown in larger cities has been offset by more activity in smaller cities, which haven’t implemented as many tightening measures.

“Overall revenues and profits plunged in Tier 1 cities, with the slowdown concentrated primarily in the Beijing and Shanghai regions. Hiring stagnated, while cash flow worsened across the board,” the China Beige Book says.

However, TS Lombard expects smaller cities to follow the bigger cities with more restrictive measures for property buying, which will ultimately lead to a decline in housing transactions, if not prices outright.

“Property sales will decelerate notably in [the second half of 2017], with the monthly number of new residential housing transactions set to drop by 10 percent year-on-year, compared with a year-on-year rise of 8.3 percent in May.”

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2264142 ... -bubble-2/
User avatar
Gary Oak
VIP Member
VIP Member
Posts: 7581
Joined: June 25th, 2012, 5:32 pm

Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 158120Unread post Gary Oak »

This could really affect China's economy. This isn't the best of times for China to get another financial hit. Still China's huge internal market tends to bail China out of most financial disasters.

Trump To Launch Trade War With China On Friday, Beijing Vows Retaliation

Yesterday, the WSJ reported that the Trump administration is planning to begin a probe of what the U.S. sees as violations of intellectual property by China. Against a backdrop of Trump’s frustrations with domestic policy, sliding approval ratings and disagreement with China over North Korea, the chances of protectionist action are rising, as is the probability of a "hot", retaliatory trade war. This morning ow learn when Trump is set to fire the first shot. Reuters reports, citing White House officials, that President Trump is expected to make a speech and sign a memorandum at the White House on tomorrow, Friday, that will target China's intellectual property and trade practices, effectively firing the first shot in what could escalate into a major US-China trade war.

This will be the opening salvo to several months of trade actions, and is expected to be followed by actions on steel and aluminum dumping — which could include tariffs and quotas — and subsequent measures to protect services, and comes at a time when Trump has become increasingly frustrated with the level of support from Beijing to pressure Pyongyang to give up its nuclear and missile program.

Trump has said in the past that China would get better treatment on trade with the United States if it acted more forcefully against Pyongyang. Beijing has said its influence on North Korea is limited. China has countered that trade between the two nations benefits both sides, and that Beijing is willing to improve trade ties. A senior Chinese official said on Monday there was no link between North Korea's nuclear program and China-U.S. trade.

As Axios adds, administration officials say Trump is doing this because of complaints he's heard from Silicon Valley executives saying Chinese IP theft is one of their biggest challenges. Allegedly, Peter Thiel has been involved in crafting this new step.

In a rare show of bipartisanship, on Wednesday three top Democratic senators urged the president to stand up to Beijing, perhaps in hopes of further deteriorating the US economy and thus shortening Trump's tenure even more. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer pressed the Republican president to skip the investigation and go straight to trade action against China.



"We should certainly go after them," said Schumer in a statement. Senators Ron Wyden of Oregon and Sherrod Brown of Ohio also urged Trump to rein in China.

That's all Trump needed to hear.

So what happens next? About a week after Trump's announcement, the U.S. Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, is expected to announce that he's initiating an investigation into unfair Chinese trade practices — using a rarely-used tool, section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The investigation paves the path to the U.S. taking potentially aggressive retaliatory actions against China such as tariffs on Chinese imports or rescinding licenses for Chinese companies wanting to do business in the U.S.

U.S. Section 301 investigations have not led to trade sanctions since the WTO was launched in 1995. In the 1980s, Section 301 tariffs were levied against Japanese motorcycles, steel and other products. "This could merely be leverage for bilateral negotiations," James Bacchus, a former WTO chief judge and USTR official, said of a China intellectual property probe.

To be sure, Chinese IP theft is nothing new, and has long been an issue for major US tech companies like Microsoft and prior administrations. It's also a major issue for agriculture and manufacturing - and any sector that has proprietary information related to their production practices. However, in the past, U.S. administrations and companies have been wary about publicly confronting the Chinese government, preferring to do things behind closed doors and in a more diplomatic approach.

Meanwhile, China denied all accusations. Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said Thursday that China pays "high attention" to intellectual property and wants to maintain good cooperation with the U.S, Bloomberg reported. Still, China has for some time had countervailing measures at the ready in case a trade spat erupts, including legal constraints on foreign companies and import curbs on specific sectors.

And just to make sure that Beijing's position on trade war is loud and lear, China state media signaled the nation would hit back against any trade measures, as it has done in past episodes. This time around, the need to project strength domestically is compounded by the looming twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle that may further entrench President Xi Jinping’s power.

Chinese officials have mulled stemming U.S. imports should retaliation be necessary. Under a draft plan, soybeans have been singled out as the top product that can be dialed back, according to people familiar with the matter. Autos, aircraft and rare-earth commodities have also been identified as potential categories for restriction, the people said.
Still, Trump's offensive comes at a very sensitive time for Beijing: just weeks ahead of the 19th Party Congress, when Xi Jinping wants everything in his economy to be perfect.

"Ahead of the 19th Party Congress, the last thing that China will want is a trade war," said Callum Henderson, a managing director for Asia-Pacific at Eurasia Group in Singapore. "It is also important that Beijing does not look weak in this context. As such, expect a cautious, proportional response."

Of course, ultimately the big question - as Bloomberg puts it - is whether the Trump administration is willing to risk a trade war as it ups the ante. The International Monetary Fund warned last month that “inward-looking” policies could derail a global recovery that has so far been resilient to raising tensions over trade. The problem, for both the US and China, is that as Trump gets increasingly more focused on distracting from his numerous domestic scandals, he is likely to take ever more drastic action in the foreign arena, whether that means "hot war" with North Korea, or trade war with China.

“So far, it’s all been posturing, with little action,”’ said Scott Kennedy, a U.S.-China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Pressure is building to do something, so the U.S. doesn’t look like a complete paper tiger.”

Finally, as discussed last night, a quick analysis of US winners (few) and losers (many) from any US-China trade war, reveals that most adversely impacted would be the states of Mississippi, Georgia, Illinois and California, all of which maintain deficits at more than 3% of GDP.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-0 ... etaliation
User avatar
Gary Oak
VIP Member
VIP Member
Posts: 7581
Joined: June 25th, 2012, 5:32 pm

Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 166559Unread post Gary Oak »

No doubt this trade war was studies for years beforehand just as China had prepared for a trade war for over a decade. I just hope that Donald Trump doesn't push Americas enemies too far. I would prefer never to have to live through world war three.

Trump Says China's Currency 'Dropping Like a Rock

Tensions between Washington and Beijing has been running high, with a full-scale trade war looming on the horizon, with US President Donald Trump's vision of China as an economic adversary remaining unchanged.
Trump told CNBC in an interview to be aired on Friday that strong dollar "puts us [the US] at a disadvantage," adding that "Chinese currency is dropping like a rock."

READ MORE: Former Fed Chair Greenspan: US Economy 'Out of Whack,' Moving Toward Stagflation

Trump has been threatening China to punish it for what he said was "unfair" trade ever since he ascended to presidency but a real threat of the trade war emerged when the United States in March imposed a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports. Commenting on the US decision, Beijing called on Washington to avoid excessive use of protectionist trade measures, with China Iron and Steel Association calling the US import tariff policy "foolish protectionist measures."


The US president also noted that he is not excited by ongoing interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, but he allows the central bank to do what it thinks is most appropriate.

"I’m not thrilled," Trump told CNBC. "Because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise rates again… I am not happy about it. But at the same time I’m letting them do what they feel is best."

ECB Turns to US Fed for Clues on Policy Normalization
Trump said his administration does a lot of work for the economy, yet the rates keep going up. The US president added that while he wants to rebuild the American economy, US competitors such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan keep loose monetary policy.
In 2008, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.25 percent as part of its response to an economic recession. The Fed began gradually raising interest rates in December 2015 and has hiked its benchmark a total of seven times since then and has indicated that it plans for two more rate increases this year.

https://sputniknews.com/business/201807 ... ency-rock/
User avatar
Blue Frost
SUPER VIP
SUPER VIP
Posts: 92978
Joined: May 14th, 2012, 1:01 am
Location: Yodenheim

Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 166592Unread post Blue Frost »

China isn't ready, and I bet wont win a trade war.
The thing is though, we are not really ready either, but we have been loosing for 40 years now or more.
Thanks to Nixon, and every President we have had since that did nothing to help America, thankfully Trump is making an effort.
Of course I talk to myself. Sometimes I need expert advise, and a good conversation.
User avatar
Gary Oaktree

Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 166595Unread post Gary Oaktree »

China would have been aware of this huge weakness all along while they schemed against the USA and all other nations “fan Qing fu Ming”
User avatar
Blue Frost
SUPER VIP
SUPER VIP
Posts: 92978
Joined: May 14th, 2012, 1:01 am
Location: Yodenheim

Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 166598Unread post Blue Frost »

I read a report that they will not win a trade war because they are already hurting.
They put a bit much into their gold system they are pushing, and other ventures.
Of course I talk to myself. Sometimes I need expert advise, and a good conversation.
User avatar
Gary Oaktree

Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 166600Unread post Gary Oaktree »

From what I have heard from Americans over there is that they have been hurting for some years now. The USA has some quality China experts. With inflation and Chinese treachery many businesses have been moving their manufacturing to third world countries that are better place to work in.
User avatar
Blue Frost
SUPER VIP
SUPER VIP
Posts: 92978
Joined: May 14th, 2012, 1:01 am
Location: Yodenheim

Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 166610Unread post Blue Frost »

India is taking a lot of those jobs, and the smaller Asian countries.
Of course I talk to myself. Sometimes I need expert advise, and a good conversation.
User avatar
Gary Oaktree

Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 166613Unread post Gary Oaktree »

I imagine that if this trade war will crash China’s economy now then the American China experts know it. With what China is doing in the South China Sea perhaps the cia and the military are in on this too.
User avatar
Blue Frost
SUPER VIP
SUPER VIP
Posts: 92978
Joined: May 14th, 2012, 1:01 am
Location: Yodenheim

Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 166710Unread post Blue Frost »

China is victim of undercutting from other nations, they are getting a taste of their own bad medicine.
Of course I talk to myself. Sometimes I need expert advise, and a good conversation.
User avatar
Gary Oak
VIP Member
VIP Member
Posts: 7581
Joined: June 25th, 2012, 5:32 pm

Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 167161Unread post Gary Oak »

My suspicion is that China's internal market could keep this crash from actually happening so it may be just smoke and mirrors as China is known to manipulate it's currency. It also is very possible that Trumps tarrifs are beginning to hurt.

Hong Kong Intervenes To Defend USDollar-Peg As Yuan Crashes

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08- ... an-crashes
User avatar
Gary Oak
VIP Member
VIP Member
Posts: 7581
Joined: June 25th, 2012, 5:32 pm

Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 178967Unread post Gary Oak »

Now that the USA has a world class businessman as president things are taking a turn for the better. http://chinawatchcanada.blogspot.com/20 ... w.html?m=1
User avatar
Giest

Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 178978Unread post Giest »

Let's help them on their way
User avatar
Gary Oak
VIP Member
VIP Member
Posts: 7581
Joined: June 25th, 2012, 5:32 pm

Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 181637Unread post Gary Oak »

The economy in China has been struggling for some years now, even before I started this thread. Things were steadily getting better rapidly however China’s corruption and not caring about quality had to eventually cause big problems. Donald Trump standing up for America’s business interests is coming at a strategic time I believe. https://chinawatchcanada.blogspot.com/2 ... Ulu00I&m=1
User avatar
Gary Oak
VIP Member
VIP Member
Posts: 7581
Joined: June 25th, 2012, 5:32 pm

Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 182789Unread post Gary Oak »

This coronavirus is another big hit to China’s economy. China’s huge internal market has been able to withstand a lot but right after the USA China trade war has been going on for some time. The timing of this virus was too perfect and this is why I suspect that the coronavirus was planted there by an enemy of China. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... sible-time
User avatar
Gary Oak
VIP Member
VIP Member
Posts: 7581
Joined: June 25th, 2012, 5:32 pm

Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 186296Unread post Gary Oak »

This run on banks I believe is evidence that China’s economy is tanking. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china ... -bank-runs
User avatar
Blue Frost
SUPER VIP
SUPER VIP
Posts: 92978
Joined: May 14th, 2012, 1:01 am
Location: Yodenheim

Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 186299Unread post Blue Frost »

Pooh has really did it hasn't he. fighting with India, with us in a trade war, taking parts of the seas that is international waters, disputes with Australia, Britain, and alienating most the world.
They are backing into a corner, when will they lash out :think:
Of course I talk to myself. Sometimes I need expert advise, and a good conversation.
User avatar
Gary Oak
VIP Member
VIP Member
Posts: 7581
Joined: June 25th, 2012, 5:32 pm

Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 186341Unread post Gary Oak »

A lot of Africa is very upset with China too. Most of China’s neighbors are having border disputes. Chinese have a reputation for nickel and dining customers which reminds me of how they trying to take a few feet here and a few feet there from countries like Bhutan and Nepal.

Quick Reply


This question is a means of preventing automated form submissions by spambots.
   
Post Reply