Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 124959Unread post Gary Oak »

Soros no doubt has access to a lot fo knowledge that we don't. Unless he is not teeling us what he really believes then China may continue to crash. How far will it crash I wonder ? At least I am doing good in Canada.

George Soros says he expects hard landing for China economy: Bloomberg
Reuters
3 hours ago

.Georges Soros, Chairman of Soros Fund Management, attends the annual conference of the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) headquarters in Paris April 9, 2015. REUTERS/Charles Platiau
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.
Georges Soros, Chairman of Soros Fund Management, attends …


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Billionaire investor George Soros told Bloomberg TV on Thursday he sees a hard landing for China's economy contributing to global deflation.

"A hard landing is practically unavoidable," Soros said on Bloomberg from Davos. "I’m not expecting it, I’m observing it. China can manage it. It has resources and greater latitude in policies, with $3 trillion in reserves."

Soros said the slowdown in China stemming from over-indebtedness is inflicting its problems on the rest of the world. China, along with falling oil prices and raw materials, are the root causes of deflation.

Soros, who founded Soros Fund Management and now is chairman of the New York-based firm, said he shorted the S&P 500 and now is not the time to buy.

In his comments to Bloomberg, Soros added that he is long U.S. government bonds and said Russia is in a very, very weak position. He believes Russia has enough reserves to last for just "a couple of years."



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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 124960Unread post Blue Frost »

I can guarantee you Soros isn't loosing anything, he is heavily invested in China, and Russia.
Likely he let this all happen, and is either going to gain majorly on China's comeback, or doing it because he sees the US economy crashing majorly thanks to him, and Obama.
I believe the latter.
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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 125519Unread post Gary Oak »

I don't feel any sympathy for China. They would laugh and love it if we were in such a dire straights. I do wonder if they won't start a war to keep the masses minds off of their misfortunes.

Not even the darkest minds imagined it would be this bad for China

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-even- ... soc_trk=ma

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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 126493Unread post Gary Oak »

Will China's huge internal market keep China afloat or is China about to crash ?

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/unpaid-angry- ... nance.html

Unpaid and angry, some Chinese workers ditch holidays to protest
[Reuters]
By Natalie Thomas and James Pomfret
Reuters
February 4, 2016

QIAN'AN/DONGGUAN, China (Reuters) - This year, laborer Fan Fu and 20 or so colleagues working on the Zixia Garden apartment complex in Hebei province have not joined China's legion of migrant workers returning home to celebrate new year with their families.

Instead, they have camped in the offices of the property developer's subcontractor, demanding almost a year's unpaid wages and too angry and proud to go back to native towns and villages empty-handed.

With China's economy growing at its slowest in 25 years, more workers face Fan's predicament and labor unrest is on the rise, a concern for Beijing as it seeks to avoid social unrest even as financial pressures build.

"The developer has kept using the fact that they have no money as an excuse. As of now they haven't paid us a single penny," said Fan, who brought others from his home town in the western province of Sichuan to work on the apartments.

"We really don't have any other options," he told Reuters in the subcontractor's offices, crowded with bedding and personal possessions.

The group had earlier petitioned local authorities for redress and staged protests outside government offices in Qian'an, a city in Hebei in China's north.

When water and electricity were cut to the dorm where they lived, the subcontractor allowed them to move in temporarily.

Fan and about 530 other workers on the apartment project are owed paychecks of between 20,000 and 50,000 yuan ($3,000-$7,500). They said the government had offered each non-local laborer 2,000 yuan in cash if they left for the holidays.

The developer, Qianan City Xinyuan Real Estate, did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment on the protests and the unpaid wages. The Qian'an government said they were looking into the issue but declined to give details.

While the housing sector is among the worst-hit in China's economic slowdown, the pain is being felt by blue- and white-collar workers in other industries.

According to Geoffrey Crothall of the Hong Kong-based group China Labour Bulletin, which tracks worker issues, there was a spike in protests in the last quarter of 2015.

Its data show that in December and January, there were 774 labor strikes across China, from 529 in the previous two months, most of them over wage arrears.

FEARFUL

At a printing factory in the western city of Chongqing, a Reuters reporter was present when a local official visited last week to make sure the boss paid his workers before the Year of the Monkey begins.

The official declined to speak with Reuters, although the boss later said it was an attempt to prevent unrest.

"That's (unrest) what the government is most fearful of," said the factory owner, who did not want to be named.

Chongqing authorities gave no immediate response to faxed requests for comment.

China's senior Communist Party leaders, including President Xi Jinping, have long championed workers' rights, and are often photographed visiting factories.

The government is concerned that protests over issues like unpaid wages could spill over into broader dissatisfaction at its rule, as it has derived much legitimacy over the past decades from delivering a higher standard of living.

Before the holiday, Beijing issued a notice calling on local authorities to "seriously investigate all incidents of wage arrears, so that migrant workers would be paid in a timely manner and in full," the state-run Workers Daily newspaper reported.

Over the past few months, however, authorities have arrested at least seven labor activists in Guangdong province in the largest crackdown on organized labor in China in recent years.

China's state Xinhua news agency accused the men of running illegal non-governmental organizations that had been "severely disrupting social order". China's Foreign Ministry said the cases would be handled "in accordance with the law".

BONUSES CUT, FACTORIES SHUT

As travel ramped up ahead of the holiday, beginning on Sunday, it was not only construction workers who prepared to celebrate with less money in their pockets.

An online survey by the job recruitment company Zhilian Zhaopin said two-thirds of more than 10,000 white-collar workers it surveyed were not expecting Lunar New Year bonuses.

In Dongguan, a city in the southern province of Guangdong known as a manufacturing hub, some factories sit idle behind locked, rusty gates, with advertisements pasted on their walls seeking new tenants.

Some of those still in business were withholding bonuses until after the Lunar New Year, workers, factory owners and recruiters interviewed by Reuters said.

Brothers Zhang Guantian, 23, and Zhang Guanzhou, 21, quit temporary, hourly paid jobs at two plants, one making earphones, the other computer cables, to go home for the holiday.

"It's hard to find a permanent job now," said the elder Zhang, while waiting for a bus with two large suitcases.

Still, he is hopeful of finding another job when he comes back to Dongguan in mid-February.

"My aim is to find a permanent job after Chinese New Year, something I like. But it will be difficult."

(Additional reporting by Sue-Lin Wong; Writing by John Ruwitch; Editing by Mike Collett-White)

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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 126496Unread post Blue Frost »

two more days till the new year, lets see.
Ill be to the bank this week to see my investment person, might fire him.
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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 127012Unread post Gary Oak »

I do believe that China's rich know what "the plan" is and their moving their money out means that it isn't going to be so good for China soon. I have heard from people who are t here that they are feeling the pinch there now. There are some interesting graphs in the article that I didn't post.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1956875 ... re-is-why/


China Burns Through Another $100 Billion in January, Here’s Why

The central bank of China probably regrets having released this one last data point before the Chinese New Year on Feb. 8. The celebrations could have been so much nicer without it.

Some analysts estimated Chinese intervention in the currency markets in January was as high as $185 billion, intervention that burns through China’s foreign currency reserves.

According to the latest data released by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) just before the new year, these estimates were a bit too high, but still. China lost $99.5 billion of its foreign exchange stash, which now totals only $3.23 trillion.

There were several hints that China would bleed more reserves in January, which is not exactly the same as intervention in the currency markets but is a good indicator. For instance, the PBOC pushed $233 billion into the domestic financial system in January.

This is the highest number in years, and the extra liquidity is supposed to make up for foreign exchange sales, which shrink the central bank’s balance sheet and drain liquidity from the banking system.

When the central bank sells dollars to prop up the exchange rate, it has to buy yuan from whoever wants to buy the dollars. Those yuan then vanish from the financial system in an accounting exercise on the PBOC’s balance sheet. This exercise has a negative effect on liquidity in the financial system and by extension the whole economy.

This is why China has to inject massive amounts of new yuan into the system and lower interest rates as well, which ironically leads to more pressure on the exchange rate.

As to actual capital flows for January, we won’t know until data on foreign direct investment as well as the trade balance come out later in February. Usually those bring dollars into the country, and a very simple estimate of capital flows just adds the drop in foreign exchange on top of those two numbers. Foreign direct investment usually adds $100 billion, whereas the trade balance averages around $50 billion. Unless there are significant changes in these numbers, total outflows could be as high as $250 billion.

There are other numbers that influence the reserve figure, such as currency moves which influence the total value of China’s portfolio. It also includes assets denominated in other countries, although the exact composition is a secret.

The International Institute of Finance recently used a more elaborate method to estimate that $676 billion of capital left China in 2015, but the country sold only $513 billion of reserves over the same period, which are also subject to valuation effects.

“With such leaky capital controls, China’s war chest of $3 trillion won’t be enough to hold down the fort indefinitely. In fact, the more people worry that the exchange rate is going down, the more they want to get their money out of the country immediately,” writes Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff on Project Syndicate.

As to who is moving the capital out of the country, Goldman Sachs has a pretty good idea.

“The estimates, though, do seem to suggest that the incentive for Chinese residents to accumulate foreign assets appears to be the biggest swing factor to the capital flow picture and the trajectory of the yuan,” a report states.

One preferred method for getting money out of a country with capital controls is overpaying for services abroad (mostly tourism), which created a pretty suspicious service sector deficit recently. In fact, the service sector deficit for 2015 was a record $137 billion, up 14.6 percent over the year.

And it gets even worse. If China didn’t have capital controls, which it has been tightening recently, Goldman thinks its citizens would invest 60 percent of GDP abroad. That’s more than $6 trillion and too much for China’s foreign exchange reserves.

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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 127110Unread post Gary Oak »

Trillions in Bad Chinese Loans to Destroy the Global Banking System

BY DAMON GELLER

mao_zedongAs first reported by the New York Times, the entire Chinese economy is about to be torn apart by trillions in bad debts that are going bust. All told, China’s bad loans exceed $6 trillion – equivalent to half the size of China’s annual economic output! But as China’s economy collapses, millions of corporations and individuals are suddenly unable to repay their loans. The impact will be catastrophic, not only taking down the Chinese economy, but threatening to destroy the global banking system. You need to act now to protect your savings & retirement from systemic collapse.

damon_geller_authorFor years, the Chinese economy flourished with the aid of reckless government and central banking policies. This led banks and other financial companies in China to issue a tidal wave of new loans and other credit products, many of which will not be paid back in full.

Just like in the U.S., China has bolstered its markets by pouring in trillions of easy, low-interest money. China even begged its citizens to take out loans and invest the money in the Chinese stock market – the same mindless behavior that led to the 1929 stock market collapse and the ensuing Great Depression. What’s more, China took all that easy money and built entire empty metropolises in order to maintain high GDP!

Now, the entire system is about to crumble, and China will be the first in a line of dominoes to fall. After many months that saw the Chinese stock market lose a huge chunk of its value, The New York Times reports that China’s bad loans now exceed $6 trillion – equivalent to half the size of China’s annual economic output!

In fact, China’s financial sector will have loans and other financial assets of $30 trillion at the end of this year, up from $9 trillion seven years ago. It’s an economic disaster waiting to happen!

China’s Problems Are Everyone’s Problems

According to Charlene Chu, an analyst in Hong Kong for Autonomous Research, “The world has never seen credit growth of this magnitude over such a short time. We believe it has directly or indirectly impacted nearly every asset price in the world, which is why the market is so jittery about the idea that credit problems in China could unravel.”

Ms. Chu estimates that as much as 22 percent of the Chinese financial system’s loans and assets will be “nonperforming.” In dollar terms, that works out to a staggering $6.6 trillion of troubled loans and assets.

The looming question for the global economy is how China might deal with a vast pool of bad debts. After a previous credit boom in the 1990s, the Chinese government provided financial support to help clean up the country’s banks. But the cost of similar interventions today could be dauntingly high given the size of the latest credit boom. In other words, just like in the U.S., the government & central bank won’t have the ammo this time to bail out the banking system!

The China Syndrome

So, what happens to the U.S. and the rest of the world when the Chinese banking system collapses? First of all, China has been financing our debt for years. A Chinese collapse means less demand for U.S. treasuries, which in turn means the U.S. has to pay a lot more to service its massive government debt. This alone could bring down the U.S. economy.

But we’re in bed with the Chinese in more ways than one. Just look at American real estate. Since 2008, the Chinese have invested nearly $100 billion in American real estate, creating huge real estate bubbles in places like California. When the Chinese pull the plug, American real estate will implode again.

But let’s not pretend that China is the only guilty party when it comes to bad debt. As the New York Times reported, “Wherever governments and central banks unleashed aggressive stimulus policies in recent years, a toxic debt hangover has followed.” Well, that’s just about everywhere in the world. In the United States, the Fed poured trillions into the markets over the course of several rounds of stimulus. The debt disaster in the U.S. might end up dwarfing the coming crisis in China. Ultimately, the entire banking system is in danger of collapsing.

So, what happens this time when trillions in bad debt blow up in the bankers’ faces? Well, one thing is for sure: Governments and central banks no longer have the bankroll to bail out the banks. So that only means one thing: Total collapse of the global banking system!

If you thought a 20-30% dip in your portfolio was bad after 2008, try an 80% collapse when the banking system completely falls apart! Or, the entire financial and banking system comes down like a house of cards. Total meltdown. And this time, the Fed and the U.S. Government won’t be there to prop up the stock market and recoup your gains after just a few years. THIS collapse could be deeper and longer-lasting than any we’ve seen before – even worse than the Great Depression!

Just like in 2008, when the giant banks and other financial institutions collapse due to bad loans, ANYONE invested in bank-issued paper investments will be taken down with the banks. This includes everyone from national governments to large institutions to average savers & investors.

So, how do you protect yourself when the entire system collapses? Put a percentage of your savings, retirement & wealth in Gold & Silver – the #1 asset class that sits OUTSIDE of the financial system and in fact GROWS when paper assets fail. And Gold & Silver have ZERO exposure to the credit default swap market. Gold & Silver have survived every fiat currency and every economy the world’s ever known and have been the wealth protector of choice for over 5,000 years.

https://www.wholesaledirectmetals.com/t ... hSponsored

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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 129702Unread post Gary Oak »

It could be that Hu Jintao kept the big crash from happening long enough to pass this mess on to his successor Xi Jinping who I have heard good things about. I have talking to people and they all are feeling the pinch. The Chinese are used to tough times and things seem to be getting bad now.

Scenarios for China’s Economy

There are some positive scenarios but things could easily turn sour as well

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1986351 ... s-economy/

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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

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China steelmaker to cut up to 50,000 jobs

One of China's largest steelmakers plans to shed up to 50,000 jobs, its chairman said, as the country struggles to reduce overcapacity while growth in the world's second-largest economy slows.
Quotes in the article
Wuhan Iron and Steel Co Ltd

600005

2.92
-0.01
-0.34%

The comments by Ma Guoqiang, the head of state-owned group Wuhan Iron and Steel, are a stark illustration of the challenges facing Beijing as it seeks to retool the economy while avoiding social unrest -- anathema to the leadership.

The firm's steel division currently has 80,000 employees but might retain only 30,000 of them, Ma said on the sidelines of the National People's Congress, the country's rubber-stamp parliament.

"Probably 40,000-50,000 people will have to find other ways forward," he told people.com.cn, a news portal run by the Communist Party's mouthpiece the People's Daily, according to a transcript on the website.

China's economy grew at its slowest pace in a quarter of a century last year and its outlook remains bleak, with the government last week lowering its 2016 growth target to 6.5-7 percent, down from "about seven percent" previously.

Authorities have prioritised reducing borrowing, overcapacity and inventory as they seek to maintain growth and make it more sustainable.

The government has announced a goal of cutting steel capacity by up to 150 million tonnes within five years.

But much production is already inactive. Wuhan Iron and Steel is only running at 70 to 75 percent capacity, Ma said.

Global steel prices have plunged in the face of a worldwide glut and both the United States and European Union, whose own steel industries are deeply troubled, accuse China of selling underpriced steel in their markets.

China's minister of human resources and social security in February estimated there would be 1.8 million layoffs due to restructuring in the coal and steel industries, without giving a timescale.

The prospect raises the threat of mass unemployment and the possibility of protests as a result.

To cushion such blows, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said Saturday the central government would allocate 100 billion yuan ($15 billion) over the next two years for a labour resettlement fund.

Wuhan Iron and Steel grew out of the first large steel plant built in Communist China, which started operations in 1958. According to the World Steel Association it was the country's fifth-largest steelmaker by output in 2014.

Ma did not specify the timeframe of the layoffs.

He said older workers will be allowed to retire early while some others will be offered positions at the firm's non-steel affiliates, and the company will subsidise those who have to seek jobs elsewhere.

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstori ... ailsignout

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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 134955Unread post Gary Oak »

Could it actually be that China's crash is in full swing now ? If so then will they start a war to distract the masses from their situation ?

China Unleashes Deflationary Spiral
Posted on 08/23/2015 | 10 Comments
1992 China (19)Global stock markets tanked last week, after China devalued the yuan to try and save the Shanghai Composite from yet another wave of selling. The Vietnamese dong and Kazakhstan tenge were also devalued – the latter losing one-quarter of its value.

Both countries are neighbors of China, so their economies are inextricably tied to the now-imploding China Bubble.

Trouble is, geography be damned, so is the rest of the world.

Chinese consumers were being counted on by the Bilderbergers to pick up the shopping slack from a stagnant West, where kids would now rather go to Thailand for a couple weeks than buy a new living room set.

But the huge Chinese real estate bubble has burst, leaving home-owners in the world’s most populous nation upside down and shopping malls empty. Even worse, Chinese authorities will try to devalue their way out of this debt morass, just as the US has been trying to do with a lower dollar.

This is very bad news for the global economy.

A devalued yuan means Asian and African nations who export to China will lose market share in China, while manufacturers around the globe will now have to compete with even cheaper Chinese exports.

It was a currency war that precipitated the last Great Depression, as countries scrambled to make their products cheaper. By then global demand had dried up, commodity markets were torn asunder and the big money had exited global stock markets.

It appears that all bankster attempts to incite WWIII to reflate the global economy have failed. Now, it will surely be a race to the bottom, as the deflationary elephant in the room rears its ugly head.

The best we can hope for is that people will emerge from these impending difficult times tougher and will then join the fight to nationalize the Federal Reserve and send its owners to jail.

https://hendersonlefthook.wordpress.com ... ry-spiral/

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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 134962Unread post Blue Frost »

i would think soon they will be pouring some of that gold they horded up out, and put it back into the economy to stabilize it again.
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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 134969Unread post Gary Oak »

Maybe their hoard of gold isn't so huge. Could it be that it has been pilfered ?

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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 134973Unread post Blue Frost »

I doubt that, but the last two years they have been hitting it pretty hard.
China, and India both bought a large reserve of it a few years back, but it was close to a high so they lost i believe.
They would be smart not to touch it till the market is back up.
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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 139230Unread post Gary Oak »

The massive imbalance of boys to girls I believe is far worse than statistics show. In every class in every school in every town there are only 0 to 15 girls in classes of about 55 students. WIll they have to make war to find girls for these many boys ? War would get rid of a lot of the excess boys and you can bet that they have considered this.If they could take over some other nations then they also could tax the conquered people as they now would be considered minorities of China.

China's Looming Demographic Crisis: Guns or Canes?

Healthy economies need young workers. And thanks to its one-child policy, China is facing a less-than-rosy economic future. Here's a lesson in demographics and worldview.

It's widely believed that China will supplant the United States as the leading power in the world by no later than the mid-21st century. Not only will China's Gross Domestic Product exceed that of the United States, it may climb two or even three times as high.

But an increasing number of experts have begun to doubt that China's GDP will ever even match ours. And the dream of restoring "the global centrality that Chinese consider their birthright" will remain just that, a dream.

There's a reason for the doubt: There are simply not enough Chinese.

The idea would strike most people as ridiculous. They'd say China has too many people, not too few. With a population of nearly 1.4 billion people, Chin is home to one-fifth of all the people on planet Earth.

But that huge number obscures the country's looming demographic crisis. That crisis is the subject of an article in the June Atlantic Monthly entitled "China's Twilight Years." In it, Howard W. French, the author of two books on China, tells readers that "In the years ahead . . . [China] will transition from having a relatively youthful population, and an abundant workforce, to a population with far fewer people in their productive prime."

Today, China has slightly less than five workers for every retiree, a ratio French calls "highly desirable." However, by 2040, the ratio is estimated to be 1.6-to-1. Folks, that is a staggering change.

The demographic downturn is already having an impact in some unexpected places. Last year, China announced it was reducing its armed forces by 300,000 men. While the official spin was that it was part of its "peaceful intentions," the more "compelling explanation" was demographic: "With the number of working-age Chinese men already declining . . . labor is in short supply."

As French puts it, "The consequences [of this demographic downturn] for China's finances are profound." The downturn is already becoming a "drag on economic growth," and what it portends for China's future is really scary: by 2050, the number of Chinese over 65 is projected to rise to nearly 330 million from 100 million in 2005.

This will leave China with a choice, in the words of Mark L. Haas of Duquesne University, between "guns and canes." In other words, it can only pursue global centrality at the cost of ignoring its rapidly aging population or vice-versa. It will have to choose between avoiding social unrest at home or pursuing global influence.

This unenviable choice is a self-inflected wound. I'm referring, of course, to China's infamous "one-child policy." Nicholas Kristof, writing in the New York Review of Books, said that "Perhaps no government policy anywhere in the world affected more people in a more intimate and brutal way than China's one-child policy."

Which is now, of course, a "two-child policy," a policy that is scarcely better. Because, folks, it's a worldview problem. As John Stonestreet has said before on BreakPoint, "Christianity sees children as gifts of God: the natural, desirable result of the loving, lifelong commitment and physical union of husband and wife.

The secular and certainly communist worldviews see children as commodities: subject either to parents' desires and 'lifestyle choices' or to a government's economic and political goals."

We in the West are not immune. John went on to warn that Western "cultural values are leading to our own similar, though personally chosen, 'one-child policies' and demographic decline."

In the end, China will get old before it enjoys the widespread prosperity and the global leadership it considers its birthright.

And that is because it has spurned birth in the first place.

Originally published at breapoint.org - reposted with permission.

Read more at http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/articl ... P3bOcoI.99

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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 139233Unread post Blue Frost »

I thought there was more woman needing men there from what I have been told, and read before.
Interesting.

The Balance of power shifting was orchestrated, and helped along by Richard Nixon. Since then jobs have left to China, and nothing here but restaurant jobs . :facepalm:
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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 142563Unread post Gary Oak »

I believe that China will still need Canada's resources. It's a good thing for Canada that we have the USA next door or China would claim Canada as it has Tibet, Inner Mongolia, the South China Sea etc...

New China Banking Crisis Could Rock Global Financial System

By Michael Snyder,/Economic Collapse Blog September 20, 2016
The pinnacle of the global financial system is warning that conditions are right for a "full-blown banking crisis" in China. Since the last financial crisis, there has been a credit boom in China that is really unprecedented in world history. At this point the total value of all outstanding loans in China has hit a grand total of more than 28 trillion dollars.
That is essentially equivalent to the commercial banking systems of the United States and Japan combined. While it is true that government debt is under control in China, corporate debt is now 171 percent of GDP, and it is only a matter of time before that debt bubble horribly bursts.

The situation in China has already grown so dire that the Bank for International Settlements is sounding the alarm...

A key gauge of credit vulnerability is now three times over the danger threshold and has continued to deteriorate, despite pledges by Chinese premier Li Keqiang to wean the economy off debt-driven growth before it is too late.

The Bank for International Settlements warned in its quarterly report that China's "credit to GDP gap" has reached 30.1, the highest to date and in a different league altogether from any other major country tracked by the institution. It is also significantly higher than the scores in East Asia's speculative boom on 1997 or in the US subprime bubble before the Lehman crisis.

Studies of earlier banking crises around the world over the last sixty years suggest that any score above ten requires careful monitoring.

If you are not familiar with the Bank for International Settlements, just think of it as the capstone of the worldwide financial pyramid. It wields enormous global power, and yet it is accountable to nobody.

The following is a summary of how the Bank for International Settlements works that comes from one of my previous articles entitled "Who Controls The Money? An Unelected, Unaccountable Central Bank Of The World Secretly Does"...

An immensely powerful international organization that most people have never even heard of secretly controls the money supply of the entire globe. It is called the Bank for International Settlements, and it is the central bank of central banks. It is located in Basel, Switzerland, but it also has branches in Hong Kong and Mexico City. It is essentially an unelected, unaccountable central bank of the world that has complete immunity from taxation and from national laws. Even Wikipedia admits that "it is not accountable to any single national government."

The Bank for International Settlements was used to launder money for the Nazis during World War II, but these days the main purpose of the BIS is to guide and direct the centrally-planned global financial system. Today, 58 global central banks belong to the BIS, and it has far more power over how the U.S. economy (or any other economy for that matter) will perform over the course of the next year than any politician does.

Every two months, the central bankers of the world gather in Basel for another "Global Economy Meeting". During those meetings, decisions are made which affect every man, woman and child on the planet, and yet none of us have any say in what goes on. The Bank for International Settlements is an organization that was founded by the global elite and it operates for the benefit of the global elite, and it is intended to be one of the key cornerstones of the emerging one world economic system.

Normally the Bank for International Settlements is not prone to making extremely bold pronouncements, and so this warning about China seems a bit out of character.

Is something going on behind the scenes that we don't know about?

Without a doubt, the global financial system is shakier and more vulnerable than most people would dare to imagine. Global central banks have been on the greatest money creation spree in recorded history, and interest rates have been pushed to ridiculously low levels.

If you can believe it, approximately 10 trillion dollars worth of bonds are trading at negative interest rates right now. This is completely and utterly irrational, and when this giant bond bubble finally explodes it is going to create a crisis unlike anything the world has ever seen before.

Just recently, Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies commented on this bubble...

He said the current financial conditions are "the most dangerous markets i have ever witnessed in my entire life - and i've been investing for over 25 years... The membrane has been stretched so wide and so tight that its about to burst."

Pento believes that once the bond crash happens, it will trigger a cataclysmic wave of crashes throughout the entire global financial system...

Mr Pento has now warned that when policymakers signal they are set to stop buying, which will stop bond prices rising, there is going to be a devastating crash - not just in bond markets but across all investment assets.

He said: "When the bond market breaks, when that bubble bursts, it will wipe out every asset, everything will collapse together... I mean diamonds, sports cars, mutual funds, municipal bonds, fixed income, reits, collateralised loan obligations, stocks, bonds - even commodities - will collapse in tandem along with the bond bubble burst."

Many had been anticipating that we would have already seen a major financial crash in 2016, but so far things have been pretty stable, and this has lulled many into a false sense of complacency.

But it is important to remember that we have seen corporate earnings fall for five quarters in a row, and it is expected to be six when the final numbers for the third quarter come in.

Never before in history have we had a stretch like this without major economic and financial consequences. The following comes from a recent Fortune article which referred to an earlier piece authored by Jim Bianco...

None of this, however, is apparent from how stock market indexes have been moving lately, which unlike the charts above have been going up and to the right. "Since 1947, every time profits fell this much, or for this long, a recession was either underway or about to begin," writes Bianco. "The only exception was the middle of 1986 to early 1987."

If you remember, there was a pretty important event that happened in 1987: A massive stock market crash that sapped close to 30% of the S&P 500's value in just five days.

It is only a matter of time before this earnings recession takes a major bite out of Wall Street.

Stock prices can stay at irrationally high levels for quite a while, but history has shown that every bubble bursts eventually.

And when this bubble bursts, it is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

Read more at http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/articl ... M9Gu6dC.99

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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 148939Unread post Gary Oak »

Xi Jinping is a good leader to deal with this mess that he had to take over. We will see is he can keep the Chinese economy up. With Chinese huge internal market it is very possible that China can deal with this looming crisis.

China Business & Economy Stress Is Building in China’s Economy Companies seem fine on the surface, but stability in 2017 will likely remain elusive

Chinese regime leader Xi Jinping is rocking so many boats on the political front that he wants to make sure the economy and financial markets remain stable in 2017. He even said he prefers stability over meeting the regime’s GDP growth target.

The past year was a partial victory, as the regime managed to contain massive capital outflows, labor market stress, and stock market crashes by using the usual tactic of pushing hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy through the state banking system. But underneath the surface, risk in financial markets keeps building.

Xi recently admitted at a secret meeting that China may not meet its target for GDP growth if doing so creates too much risk, according to a Bloomberg report. As long as the economy and employment remain stable, growth can slip below the 6.5 percent target.

“Investors may obsess over GDP, but the Party can demand any GDP figures it wants. What matters to Beijing is joblessness. If net hiring looks good, the government has little reason to act, even if other indicators show results which disturb markets,” states a report by research firm China Beige Book (CBB).


CBB has made a name for itself by providing accurate on-the-ground data for China’s economy, as official figures are often unreliable. The researchers interview thousands of companies and hundreds of bankers in China each quarter to get an accurate gauge of the themes in the Chinese economy.

The latest report reflects the narrative of the Chinese regime as well as Western analysts: The economy has stabilized thanks to stimulus, and the labor market is also stable.

It takes 83 days for the average Chinese firm to get paid, almost double the time it takes in other emerging markets.
Revenues in retail, the service sector, manufacturing, transportation, real estate, and the commodity sector increased at more than 50 percent of the companies surveyed in the fourth quarter of 2016, a good indicator of solid GDP growth. Overall profits increased as witnessed by 47 percent of companies and 43 percent of firms hiring more workers.

Keeping workers happy is the most important objective for policymakers, as an article by regime mouthpiece Xinhua in August stated: “China did not fabricate its unemployment data, and it can keep it stable despite redundancy pressures … Unemployment reflects the performance of an economy and influences policy.”

However, stability in China is a double-edged sword for Western investors. If things are good, more stimulus is probably not forthcoming. “In the fourth quarter, net hiring looked very good, leaving no reason for stimulus in early 2017,” states the CBB report.

Financial Pressure
This gain in growth and hiring came at a price, however. Profits and revenues at firms are rising, but the cash doesn’t show up at the firms—a potential signal of financial stress. “Cash flow pain persisted, with the year-on-year results rather eye-catching,” states the report.


Much of the cash flow from a company’s operations is determined not only by how much the company sells but also, much more importantly, by how much of that money it receives and when. If a company is still waiting for payment, the money is booked under a category called “receivables.” This category got bigger in 22 percent of the companies CBB surveyed and decreased in only 15 percent of the firms in the survey.

Likewise, if some businesses have to wait for money, they are going to delay payments to their suppliers (“payables”). The payables category got bigger in 26 percent of companies and decreased in only 17 percent—some of the worst readings in CBB’s history.

A survey by Bloomberg earlier this year showed that it takes 83 days for the average Chinese firm to get paid, almost double the time it takes in other emerging markets. As for paying out, Chinese companies are even slower. Euler Hermes, a company that specializes in trade credit insurance, shows that Chinese companies took 88 days on average to pay their obligations in 2015.

Another drain on cash is a rise in inventory. The companies spend money to produce goods but don’t sell them for the time being. Inventories got bigger at 39 percent of the firms in the fourth quarter, the largest increase on record for the CBB survey.

Related Coverage
Stress Is Building in China’s EconomyWhy Basic Property Rights Matter to China’s Economy
Stress Is Building in China’s EconomyChina Clamps Down on ‘Barbaric’ Insurance Sector
The long delays in settling bills could be a sign that payments for interest and debt—another negative for cash flow—are overwhelming companies. If these payments become too large, the companies have to squeeze operational cash flow to keep on going or borrow even more to make their immediate payments.

“Cash flow could explain why firm borrowing in the third and fourth quarters hit the highest levels CBB has reported since mid-2013. Firms may not be borrowing to fund expansion, but rather to cover shortfalls,” states the report.

If firms can’t borrow more or squeeze their suppliers, they will go bankrupt. According to research by Goldman Sachs surveying companies in China, four have defaulted on $3 billion worth of bonds since the middle of November. These defaults are a break with the record in the previous five months from June to October, when only three of the companies surveyed didn’t meet their payments. Given that China’s companies are drowning in debt, this squeeze on cash flow does not bode well for stability in 2017.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2203073 ... s-economy/

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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 149048Unread post Blue Frost »

China has enough equity to ride out a long down turn, and all they would need to do later is tax the people more.
The rich leadership would hurt some, but most would deserve it.
Here the stocks are looking great for a change since Trump was elected, scares me .
Of course I talk to myself. Sometimes I need expert advise, and a good conversation.

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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 150499Unread post Gary Oak »

I am so glad to be back in Canada. China will still need Canada's resources. The corruption, lack of quality controls and culture of cheating will keep China from being the world leader that it dreams of being.

The Chinese Bubble

http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/chinese-bubble/

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Re: Chinas Economy Is Tanking Now

Post: # 150604Unread post Blue Frost »

As large as their country is, and having many different regions they have resources, and could have more if they managed right.
They can build a world record dam they should be able to plant a world record forest, and have good farms.
Of course I talk to myself. Sometimes I need expert advise, and a good conversation.

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